Mathematical Modelling Approach for Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses of Cholera Infection in an Aquatic Environment
Keywords:
Mathematical modelling approach, uncertainty, sensitivity analyses, cholera infectionAbstract
A mathematical modelling approach for uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of cholera infection in aquatic environment is formulated for the degree of a dynamical system which aid cholera transmission, spread and control. A numerical approach was adopted using the ODE45 numerical scheme to tackle uncertainty and sensitivity problems. Results of analyses have significant epidemiological importance in cholera control. The study further shows that long term precise predictions of the concentration of infected cells during cholera infection could be difficult until the key parameters are correctly determined. It is evident from this analysis that the most important parameter to cholera transmission is the contact between susceptible and infected persons, while the most crucial parameter to cholera control is the rate of cholera awareness and a continuous system of 1st Order Non-linear Differential Equation was adopted together with a MATLAB ODE45 numerical scheme.
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