Imminent Collapse Of The Nigeria Fourth (4Th) Republic: A Realistic Assessment Of Major Signposts

Abstract

The first civilian republic was officially inaugurated in 1959 and lasted eight
years before the advent of the military. The second civilian administration barely
survived for four years, 1970-1983, the third republic was aborted in the throes
of delivery, under General Babangida in 1993, two years after the process started
from below. This fourth republic started in 1999 and has recorded many novel
firsts: the first civilian administration to last more than ten years; the first to
witness three successful civilian successions at the federal level, the first to transfer
power from one region to another peacefully. In spite of these firsts, the clamour
for total overhaul or drastic return to the past is getting louder. These calls are
not emanating from the known military apologists. This development should not
be taken for granted as the issue deserves proper understanding and placement.
The continued survival of democracy, despites its shortcomings, appears to have
guaranteed Nigeria smooth passage and respectability in the committee of
sovereign states. The black man should not be seen as incapable of running and
maintaining a system which other nations in the third world had successfully run
for over fifty years with noticeable gains and societal transformation. There is
the need to study the underlying grounds for the sudden romantic appeal of the
past and to understand the social adjustments needed to stem the slide from the
mundane to the dangerous precipice.