Use of Time Series Analysis for the Determination of the Trend of the Generated Revenue for Mbaitoli Local Government Area of Imo State, Nigeria

Abstract

In this survey, the least square method was used to estimate the trend in the time series and the trend parameters a and bˆ ˆ were 1.20 and 0.002 respectively. The grand mean (Yt) which is an estimate for the trend value ( ) Tt ˆ was equally 1.20. The time - plot of the original data appeared to be fluctuating and this suggested the use of the grand mean as an estimate of the trend. Assessing from the grand mean, the revenue of Mbaitoli Local Government Area of Imo State, Nigeria was on the average of 1.20 x 20,000,000 = 24,000,000 naira monthly. Meanwhile, the time-plot of the detrend series showed that the peaks and troughs repeated itself at a regular interval. The trend of the revenue determined in this study serves as an indicator and a forecast towards achieving a stable economy by the Local Government Authorities.